Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arnold Allen
Dan Hooker
80%
20%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
22-4
Career record
Δ 23 pp
24-15
W8
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Allen: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Hooker: 14 sig / 0 TD
Arnold Allen
Dan Hooker
62
Sig strikes landed
57
126
Sig strikes attempted
121
73
Total strikes landed
70
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
177s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
Blue corner
L1
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
24-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—