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Main Heavyweight

Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alexander Volkov
Tom Aspinall
85% 15%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
41-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-3
W1
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Volkov: 13 sig / 0 TD · Aspinall: 29 sig / 2 TD
Alexander Volkov
Tom Aspinall
38
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
67
44
Total strikes landed
40
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alexander Volkov

"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
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L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
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W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
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W UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
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L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
W4

Tom Aspinall

16-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
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W UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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