Back to UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Prelims1 Flyweight

Victor Altamirano vs Carlos Hernandez

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Victor Altamirano
Carlos Hernandez
57% 43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Altamirano: 79 sig / 1 TD · Hernandez: 84 sig / 2 TD
Victor Altamirano
Carlos Hernandez
38
Sig strikes landed
36
79
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
152s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Victor Altamirano

"El Magnifico"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
Blue corner

Carlos Hernandez

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28