Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arman Tsarukyan
Joel Alvarez
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
24-3
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-4
W4
Current streak
W4
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Tsarukyan: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
Alvarez: 7 sig / 0 TD
Arman Tsarukyan
Joel Alvarez
36
Sig strikes landed
30
69
Sig strikes attempted
78
58
Total strikes landed
45
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
245s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W4
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—