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Main Middleweight

Misha Cirkunov vs Wellington Turman

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Misha Cirkunov
Wellington Turman
38% 62%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
15-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
19-8
L2
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cirkunov: 30 sig / 1 TD · Turman: 15 sig / 0 TD
Misha Cirkunov
Wellington Turman
26
Sig strikes landed
30
59
Sig strikes attempted
54
47
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Misha Cirkunov

15-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
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L UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
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L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
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W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
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Blue corner
W1

Wellington Turman

"The Prodigy"
19-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
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L UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—