Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
King Green
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
30
Age
Δ 5y
36
29-1
Career record
Δ 30 pp
36-17-1
W8
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Makhachev: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Green: 9 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
King Green
38
Sig strikes landed
18
78
Sig strikes attempted
47
67
Total strikes landed
37
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.2
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
284s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W2
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
18 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—