Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mario Bautista
Jay Perrin
82%
18%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bautista: 72 sig / 4 TD ·
Perrin: 42 sig / 2 TD
Mario Bautista
Jay Perrin
48
Sig strikes landed
37
99
Sig strikes attempted
83
68
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mario Bautista
17-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
Jay Perrin
"The Joker"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
29