Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chas Skelly
Mark Striegl
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
20-3
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-5
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Skelly: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Striegl: 8 sig / 0 TD
Chas Skelly
Mark Striegl
27
Sig strikes landed
19
46
Sig strikes attempted
46
50
Total strikes landed
30
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
310s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Mark Striegl
"Mugen"
18-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—