Prelims1
Bantamweight
Miles Johns vs John Castaneda
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Miles Johns
John Castaneda
50%
50%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
16-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-8-1
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Johns: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Castaneda: 58 sig / 0 TD
Miles Johns
John Castaneda
46
Sig strikes landed
51
106
Sig strikes attempted
109
54
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
79s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
16-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
Blue corner
W1
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—