Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
Main Heavyweight

Curtis Blaydes vs Chris Daukaus

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Chris Daukaus
79% 21%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
20-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
12-8
W1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Blaydes: 30 sig / 0 TD · Daukaus: 13 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Chris Daukaus
35
Sig strikes landed
23
80
Sig strikes attempted
46
54
Total strikes landed
29
1.9
Takedowns landed
-0.1
4.3
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
198s
Control time
5s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
74%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Curtis Blaydes

"Razor"
20-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 14 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
W UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Blue corner
L1

Chris Daukaus

12-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
W UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
W UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
W UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3