Prelims1
Flyweight
Matheus Nicolau vs David Dvorak
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
·Nationwide Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matheus Nicolau
David Dvorak
57%
43%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-6
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nicolau: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Dvorak: 39 sig / 0 TD
Matheus Nicolau
David Dvorak
51
Sig strikes landed
50
125
Sig strikes attempted
120
58
Total strikes landed
63
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Matheus Nicolau
20-6-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
Blue corner
W3
David Dvorak
"Undertaker"
21-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—