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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus ·Nationwide Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Karol Rosa
19% 81%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
42
Age
Δ 14y
27
13-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W4
12
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McMann: 24 sig / 4 TD · Rosa: 26 sig / 1 TD
Sara McMann
Karol Rosa
40
Sig strikes landed
37
68
Sig strikes attempted
73
66
Total strikes landed
89
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.7
Takedowns attempted
1.1
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
416s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sara McMann

13-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database 12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
W4

Karol Rosa

20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—