Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Colby Covington
Jorge Masvidal
53%
47%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
17-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
35-18
L1
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Covington: 94 sig / 6 TD ·
Masvidal: 67 sig / 0 TD
Colby Covington
Jorge Masvidal
73
Sig strikes landed
68
165
Sig strikes attempted
137
136
Total strikes landed
88
4.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
10.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
454s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
20 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—