Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
TJ Brown
Charles Rosa
66%
34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
32
Age
Δ 4y
35
18-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 58 sig / 6 TD ·
Rosa: 46 sig / 0 TD
TJ Brown
Charles Rosa
57
Sig strikes landed
49
126
Sig strikes attempted
127
77
Total strikes landed
66
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
266s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
TJ Brown
"Downtown"
18-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—