Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shang Zhifa
Juan Puerta
67%
33%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 8"
71"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Zhifa: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Puerta: 19 sig / 1 TD
Shang Zhifa
Juan Puerta
32
Sig strikes landed
37
70
Sig strikes attempted
80
45
Total strikes landed
52
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Shang Zhifa
"Northeast Flying Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Juan Puerta
"Leadfeather"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34