Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Maheshate
Achilles Estremadura
69%
31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
22
Age
Δ 8y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maheshate: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Estremadura: 48 sig / 0 TD
Maheshate
Achilles Estremadura
38
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
68
55
Total strikes landed
52
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Maheshate
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
Achilles Estremadura
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30