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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Luana Pinheiro vs Sam Hughes

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Luana Pinheiro
Sam Hughes
62% 38%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
12-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
11-8
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pinheiro: 60 sig / 2 TD · Hughes: 53 sig / 0 TD
Luana Pinheiro
Sam Hughes
35
Sig strikes landed
26
64
Sig strikes attempted
64
63
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
142s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Luana Pinheiro

12-5
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
Blue corner
L2

Sam Hughes

"Sampage"
11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—