Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cody Durden
Aoriqileng
33%
67%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
18-11-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
26-14
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Durden: 60 sig / 5 TD ·
Aoriqileng: 65 sig / 1 TD
Cody Durden
Aoriqileng
51
Sig strikes landed
49
112
Sig strikes attempted
93
71
Total strikes landed
100
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
171s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18-11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
L1
Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
26-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—