Prelims1
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Alves
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marc Diakiese
Rafael Alves
70%
30%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
17-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-13
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Diakiese: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Alves: 6 sig / 0 TD
Marc Diakiese
Rafael Alves
40
Sig strikes landed
37
99
Sig strikes attempted
78
58
Total strikes landed
46
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.4
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marc Diakiese
"Bonecrusher"
17-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
L1
Rafael Alves
"The Turn"
20-13
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—