Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Xie Bin
Olivier Murad
70%
30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bin: 33 sig / 4 TD ·
Murad: 39 sig / 1 TD
Xie Bin
Olivier Murad
38
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
68
56
Total strikes landed
68
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
136s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Xie Bin
"The Stalker"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Olivier Murad
"Warrior of God"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28