Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Jansey Silva
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
29
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Omargadzhiev: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Silva: 2 sig / 0 TD
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Jansey Silva
38
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
71
55
Total strikes landed
43
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
Blue corner
Jansey Silva
"Jones"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26