Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Maria Silva
Kathryn Paprocki
75%
25%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
63"
26
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Silva: 64 sig / 3 TD ·
Paprocki: 15 sig / 0 TD
Maria Silva
Kathryn Paprocki
34
Sig strikes landed
31
80
Sig strikes attempted
73
66
Total strikes landed
53
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
190s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Maria Silva
"Viuva Negra"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Kathryn Paprocki
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29