Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Ricky Glenn
87%
13%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 5y
32
25-3-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
23-9-2
W5
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Dawson: 24 sig / 3 TD ·
Glenn: 28 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
Ricky Glenn
50
Sig strikes landed
38
121
Sig strikes attempted
103
72
Total strikes landed
59
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
9.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
361s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W1
Ricky Glenn
"The Gladiator"
23-9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—