Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paulo Costa
Marvin Vettori
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
16-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
19-11-1
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Costa: 163 sig / 1 TD ·
Vettori: 190 sig / 1 TD
Paulo Costa
Marvin Vettori
70
Sig strikes landed
61
135
Sig strikes attempted
143
79
Total strikes landed
82
0.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.4
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
24s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
Blue corner
L1
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19-11-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
11 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—