Back to UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Istela Nunes vs Ariane Carnelossi

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Istela Nunes
Ariane Carnelossi
32% 68%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
62"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Nunes: 62 sig / 0 TD · Carnelossi: 36 sig / 5 TD
Istela Nunes
Ariane Carnelossi
41
Sig strikes landed
49
100
Sig strikes attempted
109
60
Total strikes landed
78
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Istela Nunes

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
W1

Ariane Carnelossi

"Sorriso"
16-4
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
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