Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jacob Rosales
Victor Martinez
66%
34%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosales: 113 sig / 2 TD ·
Martinez: 144 sig / 1 TD
Jacob Rosales
Victor Martinez
44
Sig strikes landed
53
91
Sig strikes attempted
100
56
Total strikes landed
76
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jacob Rosales
"The Lil Badger"
13-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 3.3
—
Blue corner
Victor Martinez
"The Brick"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30