Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Mike Rodriguez vs Tafon Nchukwi
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mike Rodriguez
Tafon Nchukwi
55%
45%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
11-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
6-5
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Nchukwi: 116 sig / 3 TD
Mike Rodriguez
Tafon Nchukwi
54
Sig strikes landed
45
108
Sig strikes attempted
78
73
Total strikes landed
64
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mike Rodriguez
"Slo Mike"
11-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tafon Nchukwi
"Da Don"
6-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—