Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arman Tsarukyan
Christos Giagos
88%
12%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
24-3
Career record
Δ 25 pp
21-12
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tsarukyan: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Giagos: 1 sig / 0 TD
Arman Tsarukyan
Christos Giagos
41
Sig strikes landed
28
85
Sig strikes attempted
74
72
Total strikes landed
44
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.1
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
203s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W2
Christos Giagos
"The Spartan"
21-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—