Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nate Maness
Tony Gravely
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
17-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-9
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Maness: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Gravely: 36 sig / 1 TD
Nate Maness
Tony Gravely
28
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
65
42
Total strikes landed
48
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
44s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nate Maness
"Mayhem"
17-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
Blue corner
W2
Tony Gravely
24-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—