Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ion Cutelaba
Devin Clark
71%
29%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
28
Age
Δ 4y
31
20-11-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-10
D1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cutelaba: 64 sig / 8 TD ·
Clark: 23 sig / 1 TD
Ion Cutelaba
Devin Clark
38
Sig strikes landed
33
82
Sig strikes attempted
66
54
Total strikes landed
55
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
20-11-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 4-5
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
Blue corner
L1
Devin Clark
"Brown Bear"
14-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—