Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Ryan Spann
57%
43%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
39-22
Career record
Δ 6 pp
25-11
W2
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Smith: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Spann: 8 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Smith
Ryan Spann
30
Sig strikes landed
42
65
Sig strikes attempted
85
42
Total strikes landed
51
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
87s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—