Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Julia Polastri
53%
47%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
63"
32
Age
Δ 9y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jasudavicius: 70 sig / 4 TD ·
Polastri: 65 sig / 0 TD
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Julia Polastri
38
Sig strikes landed
36
87
Sig strikes attempted
80
67
Total strikes landed
70
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jasmine Jasudavicius
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Julia Polastri
"Psycho"
0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24