Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paddy Pimblett
Luigi Vendramini
82%
18%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pimblett: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Vendramini: 25 sig / 1 TD
Paddy Pimblett
Luigi Vendramini
38
Sig strikes landed
22
65
Sig strikes attempted
57
62
Total strikes landed
38
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
174s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L1
Luigi Vendramini
"The Italian Stallion"
9-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
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W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
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L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
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