Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Charles Jourdain
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
31-15
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-8-1
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Erosa: 103 sig / 2 TD ·
Jourdain: 85 sig / 0 TD
Julian Erosa
Charles Jourdain
66
Sig strikes landed
57
148
Sig strikes attempted
118
73
Total strikes landed
76
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
74s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Jourdain
"Air"
19-8-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—