Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby vs Darren Stewart
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Jacoby
Darren Stewart
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 3y
31
22-9-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
12-9
D1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jacoby: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Stewart: 18 sig / 2 TD
Dustin Jacoby
Darren Stewart
41
Sig strikes landed
37
93
Sig strikes attempted
81
49
Total strikes landed
44
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
59s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
22-9-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
D
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L2
Darren Stewart
"The Dentist"
12-9
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—