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Prelims1 Middleweight

Sam Alvey vs Wellington Turman

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Wellington Turman
53% 47%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
33-19-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-9
L1
Current streak
L2
21
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alvey: 68 sig / 0 TD · Turman: 69 sig / 2 TD
Sam Alvey
Wellington Turman
32
Sig strikes landed
32
62
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
39s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sam Alvey

"Smile'N"
33-19-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 21 fights · 10-10
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
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D UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
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L UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
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Blue corner
L2

Wellington Turman

"The Prodigy"
18-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
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