Back to UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Main Middleweight

Makhmud Muradov vs Gerald Meerschaert

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Makhmud Muradov
Gerald Meerschaert
70% 30%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
27-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
38-22
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Muradov: 40 sig / 0 TD · Meerschaert: 32 sig / 3 TD
Makhmud Muradov
Gerald Meerschaert
51
Sig strikes landed
43
118
Sig strikes attempted
110
69
Total strikes landed
41
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Makhmud Muradov

27-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
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W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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Blue corner
W1

Gerald Meerschaert

"GM3"
38-22
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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L UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
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W UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
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