Back to DWCS 5.2
Main Bantamweight

Muin Gafurov vs Chad Anheliger

DWCS 5.2 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Muin Gafurov
Chad Anheliger
86% 14%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
25
Age
Δ 9y
35

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gafurov: 31 sig / 5 TD · Anheliger: 47 sig / 0 TD
Muin Gafurov
Chad Anheliger
43
Sig strikes landed
31
89
Sig strikes attempted
67
57
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Muin Gafurov

"Tajik"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Chad Anheliger

"The Monster"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35