Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Niklas Stolze
Jared Gooden
34%
66%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
12-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stolze: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Gooden: 14 sig / 1 TD
Niklas Stolze
Jared Gooden
46
Sig strikes landed
40
110
Sig strikes attempted
114
50
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
56s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Niklas Stolze
"Green Mask"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2
Jared Gooden
"NiteTrain"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—