Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ryan Benoit
Zarrukh Adashev
63%
37%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
10-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
4-5
L2
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benoit: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Adashev: 78 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Benoit
Zarrukh Adashev
45
Sig strikes landed
32
95
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
35
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
65s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ryan Benoit
"Baby Face"
10-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
Blue corner
L2
Zarrukh Adashev
"The Lion"
4-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—