Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Phil Rowe
Orion Cosce
48%
52%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 10"
71"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rowe: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Cosce: 22 sig / 2 TD
Phil Rowe
Orion Cosce
39
Sig strikes landed
37
83
Sig strikes attempted
73
62
Total strikes landed
52
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
254s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Phil Rowe
"The Fresh Prince"
11-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
Blue corner
Orion Cosce
"Galaxy"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27