Back to UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
Main Bantamweight

Cory Sandhagen vs TJ Dillashaw

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Cory Sandhagen
TJ Dillashaw
62% 38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
29
Age
Δ 6y
36
19-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-6
W2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Sandhagen: 128 sig / 0 TD · Dillashaw: 110 sig / 2 TD
Cory Sandhagen
TJ Dillashaw
71
Sig strikes landed
67
161
Sig strikes attempted
153
84
Total strikes landed
98
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
6.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
44s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Cory Sandhagen

19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
W UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
L UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
W UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
Blue corner
L1

TJ Dillashaw

18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
W UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
W UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
W UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
W UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes