Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Casey O'Neill
Lara Procopio
72%
28%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
12-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
8-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
O'Neill: 71 sig / 1 TD ·
Procopio: 41 sig / 2 TD
Casey O'Neill
Lara Procopio
68
Sig strikes landed
51
133
Sig strikes attempted
123
91
Total strikes landed
67
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
7.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
299s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Casey O'Neill
"King"
12-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
Blue corner
W1
Lara Procopio
8-2
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—