Prelims2
Heavyweight
Carlos Felipe vs Jake Collier
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Felipe
Jake Collier
75%
25%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
26
Age
Δ 6y
33
12-2
Career record
Δ 27 pp
14-10
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Felipe: 94 sig / 0 TD ·
Collier: 130 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Felipe
Jake Collier
58
Sig strikes landed
59
133
Sig strikes attempted
142
73
Total strikes landed
75
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
72s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Carlos Felipe
"Boi"
12-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
14-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—