Back to UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
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Matt Frevola vs Terrance McKinney

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 ·Gila River Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Terrance McKinney
34% 66%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
L1
Current streak
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5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Frevola: 0 sig / 0 TD · McKinney: 4 sig / 0 TD
Matt Frevola
Terrance McKinney
27
Sig strikes landed
38
62
Sig strikes attempted
78
41
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Matt Frevola

"The SteamRolla"
11-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
L UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
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W UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
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W UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
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D UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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Blue corner

Terrance McKinney

"T. Wrecks"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
27