Prelims1
Featherweight
Movsar Evloev vs Hakeem Dawodu
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Movsar Evloev
Hakeem Dawodu
84%
16%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
21-0
Career record
Δ 26 pp
14-4-1
W4
Current streak
W5
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Evloev: 42 sig / 9 TD ·
Dawodu: 39 sig / 0 TD
Movsar Evloev
Hakeem Dawodu
59
Sig strikes landed
55
133
Sig strikes attempted
135
117
Total strikes landed
67
4.7
Takedowns landed
-0.1
8.0
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
368s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Movsar Evloev
21-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W5
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
14-4-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—