🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Marvin Vettori
78%
22%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
24-7
Career record
Δ 13 pp
20-10-1
L1
Current streak
W5
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Adesanya: 96 sig / 0 TD ·
Vettori: 58 sig / 4 TD
Israel Adesanya
Marvin Vettori
76
Sig strikes landed
64
165
Sig strikes attempted
162
90
Total strikes landed
94
0.1
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.1
Takedowns attempted
8.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
25s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
24-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
Blue corner
W5
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—