Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ciryl Gane
Alexander Volkov
23%
77%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
14-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
41-11
W5
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Gane: 135 sig / 0 TD ·
Volkov: 115 sig / 0 TD
Ciryl Gane
Alexander Volkov
57
Sig strikes landed
62
114
Sig strikes attempted
116
77
Total strikes landed
69
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
14-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—