Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kai Kamaka III
TJ Brown
74%
26%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
18-8-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-12
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kamaka III: 61 sig / 1 TD ·
Brown: 82 sig / 2 TD
Kai Kamaka III
TJ Brown
49
Sig strikes landed
49
97
Sig strikes attempted
113
76
Total strikes landed
72
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
7.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
90s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kai Kamaka III
"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
18-8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
Blue corner
L2
TJ Brown
"Downtown"
17-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—