Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Poliana Botelho vs Luana Carolina
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Poliana Botelho
Luana Carolina
40%
60%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
8-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Botelho: 34 sig / 1 TD ·
Carolina: 25 sig / 0 TD
Poliana Botelho
Luana Carolina
36
Sig strikes landed
41
83
Sig strikes attempted
90
65
Total strikes landed
64
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Poliana Botelho
8-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
L1
Luana Carolina
"Dread"
11-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—